Quantifying Specific Operation Airborne Collision Risk through Monte Carlo Simulation

Integration of Uncrewed Aircraft into unsegregated airspace requires robust and objective risk assessment in order to prevent exposure existing users additional risk. A probabilistic Mid-Air Collision model is developed based on surveillance traffic data for the intended operational area. Simulated probable scenarios are superimposed a desired operation then sampled using Monte Carlo methods. The results used estimate operation-specific collision probability with known uncertainty output. methodology demonstrated an example medical logistics United Kingdom, Target Level Safety as benchmark decide whether should be permitted.